Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in petroleum, chemicals, mining, power generation, and energy operations worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment is involved in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and processing, transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as holds interest in a gas-to-liquids project. The Downstream segment engages in refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil and refined products; transporting crude oil and refined products through pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufacturing and marketing commodity petrochemicals and fuel and lubricant additives, as well as plastics for industrial uses. The company is alsoinvolved in coal and molybdenum mining operations; cash management and debt financing activities; insurance operations; real estate activities; and energy services, and alternative fuels and technology businesses, as well as manages interests in 11 power assets with a total operating capacity of approximately 2,200 megawatts. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in San Ramon, California.
Chevron currently pays a dividend of $1.0 per quarter for a $4.0 annual dividend. At the close of market on Friday, December 20th CVX’s price per share was $122.78. This gives the stock a current dividend yield of 3.26%. Normally I look for a dividend yield of at least 3%, so I would be satisfied with this dividend yield from CVX. In 2003, Chevron paid an annual dividend amount of $1.43 per share. The dividend trend has been up each year as it now pays $4.0 annually per share. This gives CVX a 10 year annual compound dividend growth rate of 9.63%. Chevron has increased its dividend for more than two decades. Chevron´s dividend growth rate has been as follows: 1 year 13.59%, 3 years 9.68%, 5 years 9.20% and 10 years 9.63%. Historical dividend growth rates of Chevron looks very good.. Chevron normally pay dividend in March, June, October and December.
Chevron's EPS has grown an average of 37.92% over the past 10 years, 8.72% in the past five years. The past three years, EPS has grown by nice 36.48%, and in the past year growth has been negative, -0.89%. Chevron's EPS of development in recent years has been very good, except on year 2009 it dropped a lot. Also year 2012 it went a bit down. Analyst estimates for 5 years earnigs growth rate per annum are 6.87% I think, that this are quite realistic estimate.(http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=CVX+Analyst+Estimates)
Chevron's net income has increased by an average of 36.9% over the past 10 years, 6.97% in the past five years. Net income, is however decreased in last year and was negative in year 2012 (-2.66%). Net income trend looks similar to the EPS trend. Net income development in last year makes me a bit suspicious, if Chevron is a good investment for the future.
Chevron's revenue has increased 9.34% over the past 10 years, 1.83% in the last 5 years. In the last 3 years, profits have grown nicely 12.12%, only last year, revenue fell by -4.65%.
Chevron`s amount of shares has increased from 2003 to 2006.After that those went nicely down until 2010 those increased again a bit, but after that those has continue go down. That I like, because less shares outstanding, my shares are giving me a larger portion of the earnings.
Chevron's dividend average payout ratio has been in the past 10 years by about 30%. On year 2009 it jumped over 50%, but returned again next year to near 30%. This means that Chevron will have good ability to continue pay dividends, make new investments, as well as increases the value of shares through share repurchases. It suits me very well.
Chevron's ROE has been around 20% over the past 10 years, which are okay for me.
Current ratio measures the company's ability to meet short-term obligations. Chevron has current ratio 1.63 at the end of 2012. This means that the funds will be able to cover 163% of current liability obligations. I usually like the current ratio is greater than 1, so Chevron looks good in this case.
This number tells me how many years it will take to pay off the current long term debt of the company by using all net profit into it. I want this ratio to be less than 5, because the company is able to pay for all long-term debt from less than five years and on my opinion then company don´t have too much debt. Chevron`s long term debt has been clearly under 5 times net profit on last 10 years. In the last 10-year average is 0.67, last year it was 0.76.
To found out share fair value I mainly use six different methods.(http://www.passive-income-pursuit.com/search/label/stock%20valuation%20method).
Chevron`s current P/E are 10.04, which are pretty close to it`s historical 5 years average high (10.21) but more near 10 years average low (8.37) as 10 years average high (12.29). By calculating using estimated EPS 12.14 for year 2013 and the average 5-year low P/E ratio shares fair value will be $87.78. Using the 10-year average low P/E ratio, fair value will be $101.60.
Chevron`s current annual dividend are $4.0. At the close of market on Friday, December 20th CVX’s price per share was $122.78. This gives the stock a current dividend yield of 3.26%. Average 5 years high dividend yields has been 4.16% and average 10 years high dividend yields has been 3.69%. Those dividend yields gives share fair value $96.25 for 5 and $108.45 for 10 years.
Chevron`s current P/S ratio are 1.0 with revenue estimates for year 2013 (237.19B). Average 5 years low P/S ratio are 0.64 and average 10 years low P/S ratio are 0.66. By calculating using estimated revenue for year 2013 and the average 5 years low P/S ratio fair value will be $78.35. Using the 10 years average low P/S ratio, fair value will be $81.83.
Analyst estimates for 5 years earnings growth rate per annum are 6.87%. I will use on my calculation 66% of that, which are 4.53%. Then I assume that continue growth after 5 years will be 3%. Total I calculate for next 20 years. I use discount rate 10% and EPS $12.22. That will give me share fair value $139.96.
|NPV of Future EPS||$164.28||$151.38||$139.96||$129.81||$120.77|
Dividend Discount Model
Chevron`s current annual dividend are $4.0. I assume that Chevron will be able to grow dividends for the next 5 years at the lowest of the 1, 3, 5, or 10 year growth rates or 15%. In this case that would be 9.2%. Then I assume that after 5 years grow rate will be 5%. To calculate the value I used a discount rate of 10%. Totally I calculate again for next 20 years. That will give me share fair value $60.25.
|NPV of Future Dividends||$71.67||$65.60||$60.25||$55.53||$51.34|
Chevron has EPS 12.22(ttm). When I calculate Chevron`s future price with analyst estimate for 5 years EPS growth and using low P/E ratio last 5 years, I came for price $123.20. That would give about 0% upside to compare current price.
Chevron are sure a great company and I would like to have some shares of it in my portfolio. Based on my analysis, I think Chevron are currently a bit overvalued, and I am not prepared at this time to invest in it. If the price would fall down to near $110, then I might be interested on it. Chevron´s payout ratio are anyway quite low, so I suppose, it will be good investment also with current prise. Also I believe, that Chevron´s EPS will continue grown up faster as analyst estimates are.
Disclosure: I do not own any shares of CVX.